Geoffrey Miller

New Zealand geopolitical analyst & Arabic/Russian learner

Tagged: Roy Morgan

Politics

That’s it – for now

Unless there is an earth-shattering piece of news before midnight tonight, that concludes Douglas to Dancing‘s election campaign coverage. Of course I’ll be back after election night to analyse and interpret ACT’s fate. My thanks to everyone who has offered constructive criticism and feedback on my posts. LATEST – FINAL WORD ON THE POLLS: the Roy Morgan poll just out also puts ACT at 4% support of the party vote. ACT should be very disappointed if it gets anything less than 3%. Because newspaper polls today showed National at close to 50%, ACT could well prosper further, as National supporters...

Politics

Roy Morgan poll

ACT supporters were no doubt buoyed by the Roy Morgan poll out on Friday which put ACT on a 3.5% share of the party vote. For a reality check, I looked at my own commentary from back in August 2008: A little hope…came in the latest Roy Morgan poll, out on Friday. ACT – which these days normally doesn’t even make it into polling commentary, leaving one to hunt for the light blue line just above the 0% mark in the accompanying graphic – has perhaps gained a little of what Duncan Garner et al. would call “traction”. The party...

Politics

One swallow does not make a summer, but…

As ACT strategist Brian Nicolle emphasised to me in written remarks last year, National has not won an outright majority since 1951 – the year of the waterfront workers’ strike. One could argue that a landslide election victory is well overdue and deteriorating economic conditions (don’t forget, New Zealand, not the United States, is the country halfway to a technical recession) offer fertile ground for a National 50%+ result. But if the rule, rather than the exception, prevails, we should expect National’s support to erode over the next few months as voters seek to “keep Key honest”. Presuming National steps...

Politics

ACT vs. New Zealand First

The latest Roy Morgan poll finds that New Zealand First has increased its support from 3.5% to 5.5%. ACT, however, continues to be down in the cellar at 1%, where it has been pretty much for the last two years. Now, I’m no fan of the Duncan Garner-style breathless commentary (“will come as a massive blow to the…”) on individual polls, but I think it might be useful to look at the differences in ACT and NZ First behaviour in recent weeks. First and foremost, New Zealand First found itself a winning issue for its potential constituents. The support of...

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