Geoffrey Miller

New Zealand geopolitical analyst & Arabic/Russian learner

Tagged: Roger Douglas

Politics

From the front line

An Auckland-based contact e-mailed me the following thoughts on ACT: On the ground, the feel for ACT is quite strange at the moment… ACT clearly gave the impression they are bigger than they are and are polling reasonably (well, around 3% was the ball park figure often given). What’s amazing is how many ACT billboards there are around Auckland, particularly in Epsom. What’s mental is that outside of Epsom, I think ACT has replaced every single former billboard they had a few weeks ago with new ones focusing on crime, etc….They’ve also been HEAVILY direct mailing and leafletting Epsom. This...

Politics

Strategic voting and ACT

It’s the final week of a fairly lacklustre election campaign by all parties concerned. But if ACT does manage to gain an extra MP or two, it may well be due to “strategic voting” taking place. I take strategic voting to mean voting for a party for a reason other than, or in healthy addition to, agreement with its policy. I’ve previously argued that ACT should give up trying to convince voters to become neo-liberals and gain supporters for pure tactical reasons. Earlier in the campaign, we saw ACT reintroduce the tired, but sometimes profitable tough-on-crime stance. Perhaps precisely because...

Politics

Attack – and be attacked

Recently ACT has launched some scathing attacks on both Labour and National, in the hope of tarring both with the same brush and showing ACT out to be the only option for something different. To take just one example, from last week: It’s clear to us that the problem for New Zealand is economic as well as financial. It’s also clear that the political response from John Key and Michael Cullen has been both woeful and irresponsible. Their policy promises will make tough times worse. ACT can keep chipping away on these attacks, but its capacity to be heard is...

Politics

Reduce the indifference factor, not the fear factor

The New Zealand Herald has two articles on ACT in today’s paper. One is a “Q&A session” with ACT leader Rodney Hide in today’s edition, which doesn’t offer a lot of new information, alhough it’s interesting that when quizzed on economic policy Hide chooses to prioritise “certainty” for investors above the more punchy “tax cuts” message normally favoured. According to Hide there has been “policy uncertainty” in economic matters with the Labour-led government. I’d like to see Hide elaborate about what he means by “certainty”. The other article is a general overview of ACT’s fortunes called “A[CT] needs to reduce...

Politics

Normal service resumes?

After an extended break, I’m back and hope to provide some useful commentary on ACT in the election campaign. From now on I will try to make posts more timely and topical and move away from the extended, but irregular analysis pieces which I preferred earlier in the year. Expect Douglas to Dancing to be more concise and follow the news agenda more closely from now on, although I’ll still try to provide original material and comments not available elsewhere (the unique selling point of any blog). I can’t promise daily updates, but will attempt to provide commentary at least...

Politics

One swallow does not make a summer, but…

As ACT strategist Brian Nicolle emphasised to me in written remarks last year, National has not won an outright majority since 1951 – the year of the waterfront workers’ strike. One could argue that a landslide election victory is well overdue and deteriorating economic conditions (don’t forget, New Zealand, not the United States, is the country halfway to a technical recession) offer fertile ground for a National 50%+ result. But if the rule, rather than the exception, prevails, we should expect National’s support to erode over the next few months as voters seek to “keep Key honest”. Presuming National steps...

Politics

A ‘Critic’-al view of ACT – part 2

The main event in Critic this week was an interview with Rodney Hide, on page 39. Despite John Ansell saying this week that with the exception of Hide, ACT’s electorate candidates had “bugger all chance of winning”, Hide still expresses confidence in the ability of Sir Roger Douglas to win the seat of Hunua: Well, the key thing is the party vote but you have to say, the um … [laughs] I’m sure more people know and respect Roger Douglas than have ever heard of [National candidate in Hunua] Paul Hutchison. If Ansell is to be believed (and he has...

Politics

Why did Ansell leave?

A little less of my day job at the moment leaves a little more time for Douglas to Dancing. And there are plenty of things to comment on. Easily the most significant is the departure this week of John Ansell, essentially a marketing expert who was brought in earlier this year with the aim of sprucing up ACT’s appeal and packaging the party’s policies in more voter-friendly ways. As many will recall, Ansell was responsible for the ideas behind much of National’s advertising (and notably the half/half Labour-National comparison billboards) during the 2005 campaign. Let’s begin with Ansell’s words of...

Politics

Douglas publishes “further reading” to 20 point plan

Sir Roger Douglas has published a 129 page document giving “further reading to ACT’s 20 Point Plan to bring our children home”. See also the pages by Douglas at his campaign website, http://www.roger4hunua.com/. I’m told the file will soon appear at the official ACT website. Commentary to follow.

Politics

Time warps, Peter Dunne and ACT

This a “well-strained” post (given that it relates to a comment on a Kiwiblog post about an interview at the Scoop website) but I couldn’t help chuckling at a particularly sharp reader comment about a party which is faring even worse in the polls than ACT: Peter Dunne’s United Future: United Future – the personality cult without a personality. The interview is classic Peter Dunn[e] isn’t it. Sounds oh so reasonable but actually the sum is meaningless. I remember the 1980’s: yes [Sir] Roger [Douglas] was dynamic and exciting. Peter Dunn[e] can never been accused of that….. even then. I...

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