Geoffrey Miller

New Zealand geopolitical analyst & Arabic/Russian learner

Tagged: Rodney Hide

Politics

Why crime no longer pays

I watched last week’s TVNZ’s small party leaders’ debate and a Rodney Hide interview with John Campbell and came away with some developed thoughts on ACT’s hardline stance on crime. I had planned to do a blog post on it last week but it slipped my mind until I heard an account of a Dunedin North local candidates meeting. Let me elaborate: In his interview with Campbell, Hide admitted that ACT had had problems with the economy in election campaigns in the past, with people “jogging past” economy-related billboards. Hide said that this had changed this election, but I doubt...

Politics

Strategic voting and ACT

It’s the final week of a fairly lacklustre election campaign by all parties concerned. But if ACT does manage to gain an extra MP or two, it may well be due to “strategic voting” taking place. I take strategic voting to mean voting for a party for a reason other than, or in healthy addition to, agreement with its policy. I’ve previously argued that ACT should give up trying to convince voters to become neo-liberals and gain supporters for pure tactical reasons. Earlier in the campaign, we saw ACT reintroduce the tired, but sometimes profitable tough-on-crime stance. Perhaps precisely because...

Politics

Emissions Trading Scheme

One of ACT’s centrepiece policies of this election pledges to repeal the Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS). As I understand it, the ETS will require businesses to purchase “credits” for carbon they wish to emit from other companies which have a surplus (e.g. foresters). There is an official diagram which explains this further. The ETS enjoys support from both Labour and National. But ACT opposes it. My concern here is not so much the workings of the ETS, but the way ACT has promoted its opposition to it. There is no question that the party sees it as a key policy...

Politics

Hide the stuntman

A supporter of most ACT policies was kind enough to send me some photos of the party’s weekend campaign event. Some refreshing honesty here: even the supporter described it as a “stunt”. As the photo shows, it involved putting up 77 cardboard coffins to represent victims of violent crime who would have been “saved” had ACT’s crime policy been in place. Visual representations like this are designed for television and are not a stupid idea by any means. There was talk at ACT’s conference in March of carrying out similar exercises for economic matters. The obvious one would be to...

Politics

How accurate are ACT’s poll ratings? Part 1

On Saturday, I had the opportunity to listen to a talk by Christopher von Marschall, author of Barack Obama – der schwarze Kennedy (“Barack Obama – the black Kennedy”), which by all accounts is a well-researched and well-written analysis of Obama’s career to date. For his research, von Marschall began attending Obama campaign events in 2006, so the book isn’t the sort of dashed-off, quick-money affair I thought it might be.Discussion at the talk inevitably turned to current opinion polls and whether they were accurate enough. As would be expected, von Marschall pointed out the possibility of the “Bradley effect”,...

Politics

Hide left to pick up the Peters

I recall once reading an article on ACT which compared Rodney Hide’s perkbusting campaigns with rubbish collecting: it’s something that has to be done, but you don’t have to be enamoured with the rubbish collector. In other words, don’t expect a boost in support for pursuing scandals. Perhaps that’s what happened with Rodney Hide and the Winston Peters saga. Despite Peters’s claims to the contrary, it’s clear that Peters was involved in something shady. No, the Serious Fraud Office did not find enough evidence to proceed further, but that doesn’t mean that Hide was wrong to pursue the complaint. But...

Politics

The results are in…

Well with a quite respectable total 51 votes, readers have voted on what they think will realistically be ACT’s share of the party vote this year. The outright winner was the 4-4.9% segment, with 11 votes (22%), with 2-2.9% and 3-3.9% tied on 10 votes each. Going to show this blog is non-partisan, the very unlikely 7% or more band was favoured only by 9 voters and the doomsday scenario (for ACT supporters) of less than 1% had no support at all. With some luck, I think it’s plausible that ACT will get over the 4% mark on election day....

Politics

Hide on Radio Live

Rodney Hide is on Radio Live with host James Coleman taking talkback calls until midday today. So far there’s been a lot of talk on crime policy but in the second hour we’re getting more on to the economy. It took almost an hour for the first female caller – 9.57am!

Politics

Reduce the indifference factor, not the fear factor

The New Zealand Herald has two articles on ACT in today’s paper. One is a “Q&A session” with ACT leader Rodney Hide in today’s edition, which doesn’t offer a lot of new information, alhough it’s interesting that when quizzed on economic policy Hide chooses to prioritise “certainty” for investors above the more punchy “tax cuts” message normally favoured. According to Hide there has been “policy uncertainty” in economic matters with the Labour-led government. I’d like to see Hide elaborate about what he means by “certainty”. The other article is a general overview of ACT’s fortunes called “A[CT] needs to reduce...

Politics

MMP – it takes just TWO ticks

Amidst a lot of the usual pap there are some good gems of information in a Steve Braunias article in today’s Sunday Star-Times. The setting is the campaign trail in Hide’s Epsom electorate: Hide, 51, leader of the Act Party, MP for Epsom, moved along the pavement with pretty little steps and a winning smile on his tanned, tight-skinned dial. He asked: “Vote for me?” He handed out Act leaflets. Few resisted. Many welcomed the chance to shake his hand. He was among friends; when Hide won Epsom in the last election, he beat his opponent, National’s Richard Worth, at...

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