Geoffrey Miller

New Zealand geopolitical analyst & Arabic/Russian learner

Tagged: John Key

Politics

The results are in…

Well with a quite respectable total 51 votes, readers have voted on what they think will realistically be ACT’s share of the party vote this year. The outright winner was the 4-4.9% segment, with 11 votes (22%), with 2-2.9% and 3-3.9% tied on 10 votes each. Going to show this blog is non-partisan, the very unlikely 7% or more band was favoured only by 9 voters and the doomsday scenario (for ACT supporters) of less than 1% had no support at all. With some luck, I think it’s plausible that ACT will get over the 4% mark on election day....

Politics

TV debates: MMP, not FPP

News that Helen Clark and John Key are refusing to debate each other with other party leaders has understandably been received with anger by Rodney Hide. Television debates are a major platform for small party leaders to put forward their case to voters. Excluding leaders other than from National or Labour devalues votes given to small parties and only encourages the mistaken view that New Zealand has a presidential system, rather than a proportional, MMP environment. Hide performs well in debates and will be annoyed that he will be robbed of a potential opportunity to swing voters from National in...

Politics

ACT and the financial crisis

With all the coverage of the financial contagion which centres on the United States, it’s sobering to recall that it is New Zealand, not the US, which has moved into a “technical recession” in the past week, having suffered two consecutive quarters of negative growth. The last time this happened was in 1998 – a fact which should give ACT pause for thought. While financial troubles are not normally something to be embraced with glee, ACT should actually profit electorally from the economic uncertainty. In 1998, the year of the last recession (which took place amidst the Asian Crisis), the...

Politics

Conference 2008: ‘Unfinished Business’ 2.0

It seems fitting (was it deliberate?) that Douglas used the theme of the 1984 cult film Ghostbusters for his soundbite moment in his PowerPoint presentation to delegates yesterday afternoon. 1984, of course, was the year the Fourth Labour Government began its programme of neo-liberal economic reform. Yesterday, “Growthbusters” was what Douglas termed the current government led by the Labour Party since 1999. But not actual economic growth – this would be difficult to justify, given that New Zealand has enjoyed uninterrupted growth since the brief 1998 recession. Instead, he used the decline in productivity by half since 2000 as evidence...

Politics

Conference 2008: ACT gets high-tech

The front page of the ACT website has recently been updated for the conference this weekend, with two videos on display. Both are slickly produced (mostly) and are welcome additions to the site – let’s hope we see plenty more multimedia during the year. The right-hand video is an invitation from Hide to attend the conference, short but to the point. On the left, the first video features a conversation between Sir Roger Douglas and Rodney Hide about why he’s coming back to the party. Douglas believes that ACT can get 6-8% of the party vote this election. Obviously we’ve...

Politics

Populism on the rise again – an opportunity for ACT?

Populism seems to be on the rise again in New Zealand politics. Today we had Helen Clark declaring a virtual war on tagging with draconian, yet ineffective policies to deal with spray-paint vandalism. The chances of this sort of policy, which includes banning the sale of spray-paint to youths under 18, actually working hover slightly above nil. But it’s a popular policy to push to the electorate: 1. Tagging is a bane of the (mostly white) middle class. It gets people riled in a way that banging on about “sustainability” never will. Tagging is emotional, as it gets to the...

Politics

Summer speeches 2008: Hide delivers up usual fare but gives some election year hints

Rodney Hide gave his Waitangi Day speech to supporters in Epsom yesterday. There’s not a lot new in the speech itself, unfortunately. It begins with the usual weight loss advice which is getting a bit tired now: I had the great fortune to meet the President of Remuera Rackets Nigel Nathan who made it his job to get me fit to be MP for Epsom. That has been my Everest. It was a big challenge. The Club here has been fantastic in providing me with facilities and support, advice and encouragement. Two years on and I am 40kgs lighter and...

Politics

Summer speeches 2008: Hide has knives out for Clark – but kid gloves for Key

The reaction from ACT to the speeches given this week by John Key and Helen Clark is extremely interesting. Soon after each leader had given his or her speech, ACT had a press release from Rodney Hide on its website – a rarity in itself these days, when one is more accustomed to seeing a digital stack of issues of Heather Roy’s Diary. First up, Hide commented on Key. It was the traditional “good, but not far enough” argument from ACT. Hide “welcomed” the “good” speech. Key’s “youth entitlement” was a “good” policy. The only problem was that the speech...

Politics

Summer speeches 2008: why it’s not the economy, stupid

First, a Dominion-Post/David Farrar-style evaluation of my “predictions” made a few weeks back on the highest trafficked post on this blog to date: The date was correct Duncan Garner reported for 3 News Even Hilary Barry was back from her holiday But apart from John Key being the man giving the speech, that’s about it. The speech was at Ellerslie, not Burnside, and the topic had nothing remotely to do with ACT. Quelle surprise! But Key’s speech on Tuesday morning nevertheless held some interesting talking points with regards to ACT. The media have universally reported the speech as being solely...

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