International analyst Geoffrey Miller considers options for New Zealand’s response to Russia’s incursion into Ukraine Nanaia Mahuta’s visit to Europe this week gained new significance after Russia’s deployment of troops to eastern Ukraine – a development that US President Joe Biden has called “the beginning of a Russian invasion.” New Zealand’s foreign minister had just arrived in Paris to attend an EU-hosted Indo-Pacific Forum when Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that he would officially recognise the independence of Donetsk and Luhansk in Ukraine’s Donbas region. Putin later ordered ‘peacekeeping’ troops into the area. A live TV interview with Mahuta, conducted...
International analyst Geoffrey Miller explains the significance of Antony Blinken’s whistle-stop tour of the region With the Ukraine-Russia crisis escalating by the day, it might seem a little odd that the US Secretary of State spent his weekend flying around the Pacific. New Zealand was left off an itinerary that included Australia and Fiji, but only because of the current Covid-19 border restrictions. Foreign minister Nanaia Mahuta received a phone call from Antony Blinken on Saturday instead. The State Department later said the pair discussed the “collective challenges of the Indo-Pacific” and “their shared commitment to Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial...
International analyst Geoffrey Miller examines New Zealand’s positioning amidst tensions between Russia, Ukraine and the West New Zealand’s initial response to a potential invasion of Ukraine by Russia is becoming clearer. Russia has positioned around 100,000 troops stationed close to Ukraine’s borders and the US says that Russia now has the capability to invade if it chooses to do so. Russia denies it has any such plans. New Zealand’s foreign minister Nanaia Mahuta issued a written statement to media last week that said “we call on Russia to act in a manner consistent with international law and to take immediate...
Ambiguity and contradiction over China have been hallmarks of New Zealand’s foreign policy throughout 2021. In this respect, the Government’s hawkish new defence assessment, coupled with conflicting comments by ministers about New Zealand’s view on a diplomatic boycott of the upcoming Winter Olympics in Beijing, was a fitting end to the year. The assessment, released on Wednesday, bluntly called out China as “seeking to reshape the international system”. In tone and in substance, the document comfortably put New Zealand on the same page as the Australia and the US. But comments made the same day by deputy Prime Minister Grant...
International analyst Geoffrey Miller examines Nanaia Mahuta’s first travel abroad as foreign minister Nanaia Mahuta’s first foreign trip is finally underway. New Zealand’s foreign minister began a seven-country tour of Australia, Singapore, Indonesia, the UAE, Qatar, the US and Canada on Thursday. Mahuta was appointed foreign minister a year ago this month. New Zealand’s specific elimination approach to Covid-19, with isolation requirements for returning travellers, explains some of the delay – especially in the period before vaccines became widely available. Still, Damien O’Connor, the trade minister, managed to make his first foreign trip five months ago – to Europe in...
International analyst Geoffrey Miller looks ahead to the opportunities and challenges for New Zealand’s hosting of APEC Leaders’ Week New Zealand’s hosting of APEC Leaders’ Week is about to begin. Were it not for Covid-19, the week would be a once-in-a-generation, high-profile opportunity for New Zealand to showcase itself to 20 visiting leaders from around the Pacific Rim. APEC’s 21 member economies account for 38% of the world’s population and over 60% of its GDP. China, Japan, Russia and the United States are among the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum’s political and economic heavyweights. New Zealand’s last hosting of APEC, in...
International analyst Geoffrey Miller explains why the free trade agreement between New Zealand and the United Kingdom is not just about building back butter The new Aukus defence pact between Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States will go down as one of this year’s biggest foreign policy surprises. By contrast, only the exact timing of the announcement of a free trade agreement (FTA) between New Zealand and the United Kingdom was uncertain. The UK signed a particularly generous agreement with Australia in June, and New Zealand’s diplomats were clearly expecting to secure a very similar deal. Given that...
International analyst Geoffrey Miller considers New Zealand’s participation in Expo 2020 Dubai and asks whether it can help to deepen the country’s ties with the Middle East Expo 2020 is a chance to reconsider New Zealand’s relationship with the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and the Gulf. The six-month mega-event on Dubai’s outskirts – the first world fair to be held in the Middle East or Africa – officially opens to visitors today, after being delayed for a year due to the pandemic. It will remain open for 182 days, closing at the end of March 2022. New Zealand has allocated...
International analyst Geoffrey Miller considers the implications for New Zealand of the new Aukus partnership China’s level of anger at the new Aukus defence pact between Australia, the UK and the US was only to be expected. France’s was not. And Paris’s dramatic recall of its ambassadors to Canberra and Washington at the weekend may be just the start of the impact. Even in New Zealand, policymakers will be feeling more than a little miffed – despite Jacinda Ardern stressing that everything was fine. When quizzed about Aukus, Ardern said “we weren’t approached but nor would I expect us to...
International analyst Geoffrey Miller reflects on the impact that the September 11 attacks had on New Zealand’s foreign policy This week’s anniversary of the September 11 attacks on the United States in 2001 is also an opportunity to recall the impact the tragedy – and the response to it – had on New Zealand’s wider foreign policy. New Zealand immediately supported the US invasion of Afghanistan in pursuit of Osama bin Laden and Al Qaeda, with an initial deployment of Special Air Service (SAS) combat soldiers. A Provincial Reconstruction Team (PRT) in Bamyan province followed in 2003. Amidst the recent...
