How accurate are ACT’s poll ratings? Part 2
ACT is polling at 2% or less in opinion polls – 1% according to Saturday’s Fairfax poll. Three weeks out from election day, this must be discouraging for ACT supporters. Is this picture an accurate reflection of what the party will gain on election day? Or is it underestimating support for ACT? In part 2 of my report, I examine whether a reverse “Bradley effect” could be underestimating support for ACT in opinion polls. Because I’m interested in historical comparisons, the best resource would be a database averaging the various polls taken in election years. Lacking this, I decided to...