Geoffrey Miller

New Zealand geopolitical analyst & Arabic/Russian learner

geoffreymiller.info

Politics

Targeting voters abroad

Finding on my return that the election was so close was something of a surprise – November 8 is certainly not far away! For voters abroad such as myself, it will be even sooner. I received a letter from Elections NZ advising me on how to vote from overseas and it looks like the easiest way will be to download and fax my voting papers back to New Zealand – from two and a half weeks prior to the actual day. A figure I’ve heard quoted before is that there are some one million New Zealanders living overseas. I don’t...

Politics

Normal service resumes?

After an extended break, I’m back and hope to provide some useful commentary on ACT in the election campaign. From now on I will try to make posts more timely and topical and move away from the extended, but irregular analysis pieces which I preferred earlier in the year. Expect Douglas to Dancing to be more concise and follow the news agenda more closely from now on, although I’ll still try to provide original material and comments not available elsewhere (the unique selling point of any blog). I can’t promise daily updates, but will attempt to provide commentary at least...

Politics

ACT List 2008: announcement 11am on Wednesday

Being away I can’t promise any immediate commentary, but check all the usual places for details at 11am on Wednesday, especially the ACT website: www.act.org.nz.

Politics

ACT List 2008: not today?

I couldn’t find any trace of an announcement of the ACT List in any of the usual places, so unless a release is scheduled for tonight I assume it has been delayed. Perhaps it is possible that ACT’s Board was only deciding the List order, with the announcement of it only to come later. My information that the List would be unveiled on August 16 was in the July 4 issue of member e-mail newsletter ACTion. Towards the Party List #7 The Board will decide the order of the Party List on Saturday 16 August, based mainly on ability to...

Politics

Very clever

Very clever indeed. Heather Roy has a relaunched website with a new news blog called “Royters”. Which person in the office had that stroke of genius I wonder? The name alone is reason enough to visit! Incidentally I’m told from sources within National that Roy has little chance of beating former ACT MP Stephen Franks in the Wellington Central electorate. Roy is truly a credit to ACT and an asset to Parliament though, so I hope ACT polls enough to get her in alongside Hide.

Politics

ACT List 2008: what would be a “dream team”?

There are just hours to go until the ACT List is scheduled to be revealed – today, August 16. I’m not aware of any delays to the announcement and so hope to put some commentary later today on the release. In the meantime, here is some healthy speculation and wild guessing to get your teeth into. Back in February, we were told that Sir Roger Douglas would be just one of a “dream team” of candidates that ACT would announce during the course of the year. Yet there have been few, if any, truly stellar candidates unveiled. That’s not to...

Politics

Special report: the ACT List 2008 (part 2)

What follows is a breakdown into categories of ACT members who have put themselves forward for selection for ACT’s List at the 2008 election. I have collated this list using the biographies provided and occasionally using personal background knowledge. Obviously I have gone by the information provided by the nominees and could only place them in categories for which information was provided. For Alan (Smilie) Wood I had no information other than that he “[l]ives near Kerikeri”. Nominees will usually have been placed into at least two categories, one reflecting their geographical location and another their occupation, as well as...

Politics

Special report: the ACT List 2008 (part 1)

ACT members have been receiving voting forms and brief biographies of members who have put themselves forward to be on the party list for this year’s election. The accompanying information sets out the purpose of the vote, which is non-binding: On 16 August 2008, the Board of Trustees of the ACT Party will decide our Party List for the coming General Election. In the build-up, the Board members are gathering information about the contending candidates from many sources to assist them with that responsibility, including: – Speeches by the candidates – Summaries of qualifications and experience – Interviews with the...

Politics

MMP officially under threat

The New Zealand Herald has today devoted its editorial to agreeing with National on holding a referendum on MMP. As I’ve previously criticised, ACT is supporting a referendum on the basis that voters should have a chance to put forward their opinion. And National has committed to holding a binding referendum no later than 2011 on the MMP system. Yet as the Herald editorial shows, there is so much misinformation on MMP that no “fair” referendum could ever take place. I shook my head at the following in the editorial: Those who backed MMP no longer wanted unbridled power to...

Politics

One swallow does not make a summer, but…

As ACT strategist Brian Nicolle emphasised to me in written remarks last year, National has not won an outright majority since 1951 – the year of the waterfront workers’ strike. One could argue that a landslide election victory is well overdue and deteriorating economic conditions (don’t forget, New Zealand, not the United States, is the country halfway to a technical recession) offer fertile ground for a National 50%+ result. But if the rule, rather than the exception, prevails, we should expect National’s support to erode over the next few months as voters seek to “keep Key honest”. Presuming National steps...

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