Geoffrey Miller

New Zealand geopolitical analyst & Arabic/Russian learner

geoffreymiller.info

Politics

Has John Banks breached the Act Party constitution and rules?

This blog post was originally published at Liberation Currently the Act Party is attempting to distance itself from the ‘banks.com’ scandal engulfing its leader. For example after the Dotcom donation allegations became known, Act Party president Chris Simmons told the New Zealand Herald ‘There’s a bit of a beat-up going on. It was all to do with the mayoral campaign. It doesn’t have anything to do with Act’. But in practical terms, it has become fairly clear that anything to do with John Banks has in fact a great deal to do with Act, given that he is now their...

Politics

The consequences of the John Banks donation scandal

This blog post was originally published at Liberation Is it all a damp squib? Or will the Kim Dotcom allegations about John Banks lead to messy by-elections, the death of the Act Party, a boost for the Conservative Party, and other party mergers? The guest blog post below from Act-watcher Geoffrey Miller, delves into the various ramifications, and outlines five possible consequences of the scandal. Five possible consequences of the John Banks donation allegations: 1. Nothing – or nothing much Sometimes things that seem like enormous scandals turn into damp squibs. In September 2006, a former policeman and then private...

Politics

Winners and losers in the Act Party leadership coup

This blog post was originally published at Liberation The New Zealand political landscape changed in some major ways with the extraordinary coup by Don Brash for the leadership of the Act Party. Who wins from this unusual changing of the guard? Long-time Act-watcher, Geoffrey Miller, argues in this guest blog post that the ‘winners’ to come out of the coup are Don Brash, John Key, John Banks, Aaron Bhatnagar, Phil Goff, Hilary Calvert, and the Coastal Coalition. And the ‘losers’ are Rodney Hide, John Key, John Boscawen, Brian Nicolle, and Reform New Zealand. Blogger Whaleoil has already come up with...

Politics

National, Act, Brash and Orewa

This blog post was originally published at Liberation On 27 January 2004, Don Brash, then leader of the National Party for just a few months, gave a speech to the Orewa Rotary Club on what he called ‘the dangerous drift towards racial separatism’ in New Zealand. In his speech, Brash advocated the abolition of the Maori seats, an accelerated Treaty of Waitangi settlements process and the removal of ‘divisive race-based features from legislation’. The word Orewa is of course still strongly associated with Brash today. In his interview with John Campbell on Wednesday (27 April 2011), Brash was asked whether...

Politics

Don Brash’s move from National to Act

This blog post was originally published at Liberation Don Brash’s current bid for the leadership of the Act Party is viewed as a National Party takeover of the minor party – because Don Brash is an ex-leader of National.  However, in reality Brash has always been seen as more aligned with the ideologies of Act – after all, when he was a National MP he was dubbed ‘Act’s tenth MP’. So, is Don Brash naturally more of an Act Party politician than a National Party one? And if so, why didn’t he join Act in the first place, and not...

Politics

Don Brash – a new hope or an old headache for the Act Party?

This blog post was originally published at Liberation ‘Don Brash clearly believes he can do Mr Hide’s job.  Equally clearly, many of his colleagues do not – as yet.  If they were really confident Dr Brash was up to it, he would have been installed as leader by the end of this week, so wretched has been Mr Hide’s performance.  But Dr Brash is not of a mind to get the message.  For the party’s sake, he should have done one of two things. Either organised his putsch with absolute secrecy until the deed had been done. Or issued a...

Act Party campaign 2008

Politics

Conspiracy against Hide? Or Conspiracy by Hide?

This blog post was originally published at Liberation There are two conspiracy stories about the alleged November 2009 leadership challenge in the Act Party which is still dogging the party today. The dominant version about the so-called failed leadership coup is that deputy leader Heather Roy and maverick MP Roger Douglas conspired to topple Rodney Hide from the leadership position within Act. A second conspiracy theory that deserves some attention is the idea that the whole story is actually a beat-up, or at least an exaggeration, and that the story has actually been encouraged and exaggerated by Rodney Hide himself....

Politics

Act’s problem – Roger, not Roy

This blog post was originally published at Liberation The case against Heather Roy The Heather Roy conspiracy supposedly climaxed with her speech to Act’s annual conference in Wellington at the end of last month where supposedly the knives were still out for party leader Rodney Hide. The political commentator at the New Zealand Herald, John Armstrong, told readers that Roy had hidden ‘numerous, if subtle, digs at Hide personally’ throughout her speech. To Armstrong, Roy’s statement that ‘Holding an electorate seat and a couple of percentage points of party vote is not good enough’ is evidently not a blindingly obvious...

Politics

The guts to do what’s right?

ACT party stalwart Trevor Loudon, who runs the New Zeal blog, reports on the fate of the “anti-gang patches” bill. Amidst a busy news week I had initially overlooked the Herald’s coverage of the fate of the bill, which saw it passed 62-59. For ACT, Rodney Hide, John Boscawen and David Garrett both voted in favour of the bill, while Heather Roy and Roger Douglas voted against it. In March, Hide had made the bill a conscience vote after divisions amongst the caucus had become apparent. On hearing that Rodney Hide had reversed his original opposition to the bill, Loudon...

Politics

Update: ACT and the Dunedin stadium

An update on opposition to the proposed new waterfront stadium in Dunedin, focusing on the connections with ACT. The prospects for action by Local Government Minister and ACT leader Rodney Hide seem to be diminishing. Earlier this week, Hide said he would be pleased to come to Dunedin at the invitation of Stop the Stadium, but also warned that it would take gross recklessness by local councils, which have thus far approved the proposal, for the project to be reviewed, according to the Otago Daily Times. On Saturday, the ODT reported a Hide spokesman as saying that a visit would...

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