Category: Politics

Jacinda Ardern has delivered a keynote speech on foreign policy. Geoffrey Miller reads between the lines. It was about APEC. And the Indo-Pacific. But most of all, it was about China. Jacinda Ardern’s keynote foreign policy address on Wednesday – at the annual conference of the New Zealand Institute of International Affairs (NZIIA) in Wellington – was another exercise in reading between the diplomatic lines. Ordinarily, the biggest New Zealand foreign policy story of the week would have almost certainly been this speech. But Monday’s surprise announcement that Jacinda Ardern would host an impromptu virtual APEC leaders’ meeting this Friday...

What is New Zealand’s most important role in a quickly changing geopolitical world? It could be mediating between China and the West, according to international analyst Geoffrey Miller. A keynote speech by Jacinda Ardern next week will set the tone for a busy few months of foreign policy activity, culminating in NZ’s virtual hosting of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) leaders’ summit in November. The coming months also include the annual meeting of the UN General Assembly in New York in September and the COP26 climate change summit, to be held in Glasgow in late October and early November. Ardern...

International analyst Geoffrey Miller previews this weekend’s Otago Foreign Policy School This weekend’s Otago Foreign Policy School will be another chance for foreign minister Nanaia Mahuta to explain the Labour Government’s foreign policy agenda. The Dunedin conference has been held annually since 1966, except for last year, when it was cancelled amidst uncertainty over Covid-19. Mahuta will give the foreign minister’s traditional opening address to the conference on Friday. It will be closely watched in diplomatic circles for clues as to the future direction of New Zealand’s foreign policy under Labour. Mahuta’s speech to the China Council in April fuelled...

International analyst Geoffrey Miller explains why Benjamin Netanyahu’s ousting from power and the formation of a new coalition government in Jerusalem may be a chance for New Zealand to make a fresh start in its relationship with Israel This month’s formation of a new coalition government in Israel may be a chance for New Zealand to reset – or at least reassess – its rocky relationship with the country. The new Israeli government, in which the right-wing nationalist Naftali Bennett will initially serve as Prime Minister, is a complicated one. The coalition deal involves eight parties that span the political...

New Zealanders’ hostility towards China is growing rapidly – but the worst may be still ahead. International analyst Geoffrey Miller examines the latest survey results on how this country feels about China. The latest “Perceptions of Asia” survey from the Asia New Zealand Foundation, released today, shows a sharp rise in the number of New Zealanders who view China as a threat. 35% of New Zealanders surveyed in the study saw China as a major threat or threat – up from 22% the previous year. But the survey was conducted in late October and early November 2020 – which means...

Below is an Arabic translation of my article ‘New Zealand’s relationship with Saudi Arabia faces increasing scrutiny’, originally published in English for the Democracy Project on 11 June 2021. The translation was produced and kindly offered for republication here by Sydney-based freelance journalist Yousef Abou Ammar (on Twitter: @YousefAAmmar): علاقات نيوزيلندا بالمملكة العربية السعودية تواجه تمحيصًا متزايدًا  بينما تحظى العلاقات النيوزيلندية الإشكالية والمربحة مع الصين بالكثير من الاهتمام، إلا أن هناك علاقة أخرى مهمة ومماثلة مع المملكة العربية السعودية لا تحظى باهتمام كبير. يشرح المحلل الدولي جيفري ميلرGeoffrey Miller سبب أهمية الرياض لدرجة يصعب على ويلينغتون تجاهلها. أعلنت وزيرة الخارجية...

While New Zealand’s problematic but lucrative relationship with China gets lots of attention, there’s another important and similar relationship with Saudi Arabia that receives less interest. International analyst Geoffrey Miller explains why Riyadh is too important for Wellington to ignore. New Zealand’s new ambassador to Saudi Arabia, Barney Riley, has his work cut out for him. Foreign affairs minister Nanaia Mahuta last week announced Riley as her choice for the new Head of Mission in Riyadh. Riley is an experienced diplomat and is no stranger to the Middle East. He has previously served as New Zealand’s Ambassador to Egypt and...

New Zealand’s evolving foreign policy – especially with China – is put under the microscope by international analyst Geoffrey Miller, who says it’s important to consider the wider trends and not just the latest twist in the story. This week’s meeting between Jacinda Ardern and Scott Morrison in Queenstown was yet another opportunity to judge the state of New Zealand’s relationship with China. It added to 2021’s ever-growing list. The year began with January’s Freudian slip by Damien O’Connor, who said that Australia needed to “follow us and show respect” to China. In March, New Zealand foreign minister Nanaia Mahuta...

New Zealand’s foreign minister is ruffling feathers. International analyst Geoffrey Miller explores Nanaia Mahuta’s orientation to her job, Beijing, and Belarus. Nanaia Mahuta’s comments on China in a Guardian interview this week brought a veiled rebuke from Beijing – and a new wave of international headlines. It was a fresh reminder that the foreign minister’s words are being closely watched – and not just by China itself. Mahuta is undoubtedly ruffling feathers. But if what appears to be her underlying strategy succeeds – moving Wellington back towards Beijing, while doing just enough to keep traditional Western allies on board –...

This week’s Budget has more than just financial accounts. International analyst Geoffrey Miller delves into what the allocations say about the direction of foreign policy under the new ministers. There are some new clues to be found in the Budget that illustrate the foreign affairs and trade agenda of the Labour Government, under new ministers Nanaia Mahuta and Damien O’Connor. The headline item and only new spending for Vote Foreign Affairs was a $344m appropriation to redevelop Scott Base in Antarctica. Of course, this is significant new money – and a substantial boost on previous plans to spend only $200m....