Geoffrey Miller

New Zealand geopolitical analyst & Arabic/Russian learner

Category: Politics

Politics

Roy Morgan poll

[text-blocks id=”act-party”] ACT supporters were no doubt buoyed by the Roy Morgan poll out on Friday which put ACT on a 3.5% share of the party vote. For a reality check, I looked at my own commentary from back in August 2008: A little hope…came in the latest Roy Morgan poll, out on Friday. ACT – which these days normally doesn’t even make it into polling commentary, leaving one to hunt for the light blue line just above the 0% mark in the accompanying graphic – has perhaps gained a little of what Duncan Garner et al. would call “traction”....

Politics

The results are in…

[text-blocks id=”act-party”] Well with a quite respectable total 51 votes, readers have voted on what they think will realistically be ACT’s share of the party vote this year. The outright winner was the 4-4.9% segment, with 11 votes (22%), with 2-2.9% and 3-3.9% tied on 10 votes each. Going to show this blog is non-partisan, the very unlikely 7% or more band was favoured only by 9 voters and the doomsday scenario (for ACT supporters) of less than 1% had no support at all. With some luck, I think it’s plausible that ACT will get over the 4% mark on...

Politics

Hide on Radio Live

[text-blocks id=”act-party”] Rodney Hide is on Radio Live with host James Coleman taking talkback calls until midday today. So far there’s been a lot of talk on crime policy but in the second hour we’re getting more on to the economy. It took almost an hour for the first female caller – 9.57am!

Politics

Herald’s “street poll” in Botany

[text-blocks id=”act-party”] In 2005, ACT felt aggrieved by a One News poll which appeared to give Richard Worth a substantial lead over Rodney Hide. ACT’s claim was that respondents were confused by the wording of the question on the electorate vote, which asked for the preferred party of the candidate, rather than the candidate’s name. This gave the misleading impression that Worth was well in the lead. Today the New Zealand Herald has published a street poll in Botany which seems questionable to me. For those of you who don’t know, ACT is standing its candidate Kenneth Wang in the...

Politics

Reduce the indifference factor, not the fear factor

[text-blocks id=”act-party”] The New Zealand Herald has two articles on ACT in today’s paper. One is a “Q&A session” with ACT leader Rodney Hide in today’s edition, which doesn’t offer a lot of new information, alhough it’s interesting that when quizzed on economic policy Hide chooses to prioritise “certainty” for investors above the more punchy “tax cuts” message normally favoured. According to Hide there has been “policy uncertainty” in economic matters with the Labour-led government. I’d like to see Hide elaborate about what he means by “certainty”. The other article is a general overview of ACT’s fortunes called “A[CT] needs...

Politics

Wisdom from Guyon Espiner

[text-blocks id=”act-party”] Some flippant food for thought… I didn’t know that Guyon Espiner had a blog, but buried on the TVNZ site it appears he does. In his latest post called “Minor parties and political power” the state broadcaster’s resident sage gives his opinion on the best of the rest – and mentions only New Zealand First, the Greens and the Maori Party, in that order. Beryl Good (20 on ACT’s list) commented directly on Espiner’s post: “Hello Guyon Why have you not mentioned the ACT Party on your Minor Parties and Political power talk? ACT has so much sensible...

Politics

ACT, David Garrett and the Sensible Sentencing Trust

[text-blocks id=”act-party”] I neglected to place a comment at the time on ACT’s announcement that David Garrett, legal counsel for the right-wing lobby group called the Sensible Sentencing Trust, is on place number 5 in the party list. Place 5 was left open at the time of ACT’s main list announcement in August. It’s not surprising that ACT has, as Steve Braunias puts it today, “sidled up” to the Sensible Sentencing Trust. An anti-crime message has been a key part of the party’s election platform since 1999. In 2002, the “Zero Tolerance for Crime” was accompanied by billboards showing handcuffs...

Politics

Vote first here!

[text-blocks id=”act-party”] For those of you who can’t wait to cast your vote on November 8, make sure you cast your vote in Douglas to Dancing‘s poll on ACT’s party vote on the sidebar at left. There are six days to go. In the question I ask “realistically” what percentage of the party vote ACT will get. I thought this could be overwhelmed by ACT supporters hoping the party will get “7% or more” – but a check just now found that of the 12 votes cast (a modest success given the niche appeal of this blog), the most popular...

Politics

MMP – it takes just TWO ticks

[text-blocks id=”act-party”] Amidst a lot of the usual pap there are some good gems of information in a Steve Braunias article in today’s Sunday Star-Times. The setting is the campaign trail in Hide’s Epsom electorate: Hide, 51, leader of the Act Party, MP for Epsom, moved along the pavement with pretty little steps and a winning smile on his tanned, tight-skinned dial. He asked: “Vote for me?” He handed out Act leaflets. Few resisted. Many welcomed the chance to shake his hand. He was among friends; when Hide won Epsom in the last election, he beat his opponent, National’s Richard...

Politics

TV debates: MMP, not FPP

[text-blocks id=”act-party”] News that Helen Clark and John Key are refusing to debate each other with other party leaders has understandably been received with anger by Rodney Hide. Television debates are a major platform for small party leaders to put forward their case to voters. Excluding leaders other than from National or Labour devalues votes given to small parties and only encourages the mistaken view that New Zealand has a presidential system, rather than a proportional, MMP environment. Hide performs well in debates and will be annoyed that he will be robbed of a potential opportunity to swing voters from...

geopolitics.nz - Understand the world through New Zealand eyeswww.geopolitics.nz
+