Geoffrey Miller

New Zealand geopolitical analyst & Arabic/Russian learner

Category: Politics

Politics

Who is Simon Lusk? Examining the crucial figure in Nicky Hager’s Dirty Politics

Largely lost in the discussion of Nicky Hager’s Dirty Politics is a key figure – Simon Lusk. Simon Lusk has his own chapter in the book– Chapter 5, “Simon Lusk’s Plan”. He also features heavily in Chapter 6 – “El Rushbo of Aotearoa”. In this chapter, the role of Lusk in ending Rodney Hide’s leadership of the Act Party is discussed. The Hide issue has been well discussed in the media over the past few days, and Andrew Geddis offers a useful summary. Chapter 5 details Lusk’s plan to back right-wing candidates in safe National seats. Hager includes Facebook conversations...

Politics

#Hagerbook: How did Martyn Bradbury know what was in “Dirty Politics”?

On Monday, Martyn Bradbury posted “3 guesses about Nicky Hager’s new book” on The Daily Blog. The post is so short that it’s worth quoting in full: 3 guesses about Nicky Hager’s new book Nicky is about to inject some critical analysis into politics with the launch this Wednesday of his brand new book. Here are my 3 guesses on his book. 1 – Right wing spin doctors in Wellington will be crying harder than Matthew Hooton post the Hollow Men. 2 – We won’t hear from the Taxpayer Union for a while. 3 – This won’t be the only...

Politics

Moderator “bias” in TV leaders’ debates – Mike Hosking vs. John Campbell

#81959809 / gettyimages.com In New Zealand, this week has seen some discussion about Mike Hosking hosting leaders’ debates on state-owned, but independent and commercially-driven broadcaster TVNZ. It has been reported that Labour leader David Cunliffe is considering boycotting them because of Mike Hosking’s alleged leanings towards National, the main centre-right party. Hosking last year introduced current National Party leader and Prime Minister John Key at Key’s “State of the Nation” speech, telling the audience “We have bright prospects for the future, so long as you keep them [National] in Government”. The right has been quick to compare Hosking’s supposed right-wing...

Cunliffe and Robertson

Politics

Three reasons why David Cunliffe’s apology for being a man might have been a smart move

This post was originally published at Liberation. The majority view seems to be that David Cunliffe’s apology on Friday for ‘being a man’ was a mistake. But a contrary view could be that the apology was a very deliberate and calculated risk. Here are three reasons why Cunliffe’s apology might have been a smart move.  1. Voters are talking about Cunliffe There’s only one thing worse than being talked about – not being talked about. There are 74 days until the election on 20 September. If Labour and Cunliffe win every one of these days – in terms of media attention and focus...

TV3 political editor and then Labour leader Phil Goff, 2011 (original image)

Politics

Twitter lists: New Zealand media and politics/New Zealand foreign policy

I manage two Twitter lists. The first list is for New Zealand political and media-related Twitter accounts. This list is called NZ media/politics+. The list has 1700+ members, including journalists, broadcasters, producers, current and former members of parliament (MPs), parliamentary candidates, parties, unionists, lobby groups, academics, diplomats, bloggers and other commentators. The second list has 700+ accounts that are related in some way to New Zealand foreign policy – including diplomatic missions, New Zealand and foreign diplomats, journalists, analysts, commentators and organisations. This list is called Foreign policy & trade NZ. These lists are not intended to be partisan or...

Success or failure

Politics

Three reasons why the Internet Party might not be successful

This post was originally published at Liberation. In my first post, I looked at why the Internet Party might be successful. Here, I look at why it might not be. 1. Ideology  In the last post, I concluded by looking at the Internet Party’s chances of taking the mantle of a populist party. But the downside of being populist is ideological incoherence. The unveiling of the deal with Mana was met by the wave of scepticism from the Establishment – perhaps symbolised best by TV3 political editor Patrick Gower, wholabelled the arrangement as ‘one of the dirtiest deals in New Zealand political history’. Internet...

Kim Dotcom

Politics

Three reasons why the Internet Party might be successful

This post was originally published at Liberation. The Internet Party has a funder, a leader and now a shortlist of 22 enthusiastic prospective candidates who are seeking a place on the party’s inaugural list. But how likely is the party to succeed? In the following two posts, I look at three reasons why the Internet Party may succeed – and three reasons it might not. The Internet Party is up and running. Here are three reasons why it might succeed: 1. Resources Where: Albany Street in Dunedin, just along from the now closed Captain Cook Tavern.When: A wet Monday afternoon in June. What:...

Bundestag

Politics

Five reasons why the German election matters for New Zealand

This post was originally published at Liberation. In this post I provide some comparative insights into the lessons of the recent German election for New Zealand politics. The lessons are the following: 1. The electoral system is the same, 2. The German election shows the danger of a 5% threshold, 3. Angela Merkel is John Key, 4. A coalition is possible that does not include the biggest party, 5. Credibility matters. 1. The electoral system is the same Germany was the model for the mixed member proportional (MMP) voting system that New Zealand adopted in 1996. While it will always be easier culturally and...

Parliament buildings, Wellington.

Politics

New Zealand politicians on social media (including Wayne Mapp at The Standard)

This post was originally published at Liberation. MPs past and present in the blogosphere A number of past and present MPs are engaging in social media – blogs, and Twitter in particular. In this blog post,I outline what politicians are communicating online and where. I evaluate their efforts, and report on the latest rightwing ex-politician to enter the comments section of a leftwing blog. #106540172 / gettyimages.com This post was inspired by an innocuous-looking reader comment by “Wayne” at leftwing blog The Standard on the blogpost, Cunliffe declares war on National and the TPPA. Here are the comments: Wayne 8.1.1.3 17 September 2013...

Rodney Hide Epsom billboard

Politics

Can Labour learn from Act’s leadership primary? (part 2)

#56052984 / gettyimages.com This post was originally published at Liberation. In the last post, I looked at the background to the Act Party’s 2004 leadership primary, which saw Rodney Hide win election over three other contenders. In this post, I consider some new information passed from a former Act insider, who wishes to remain anonymous. The comments are a cautionary tale as to what can go wrong with a primary contest. Based on this information and analysis, I ask whether Labour will end up going the same way that Act did following its destructive primary. An Act Party insider writes: I’m bemused by...

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