Geoffrey Miller

New Zealand geopolitical analyst & Arabic/Russian learner

Author: Geoffrey Miller

Politics

Reduce the indifference factor, not the fear factor

The New Zealand Herald has two articles on ACT in today’s paper. One is a “Q&A session” with ACT leader Rodney Hide in today’s edition, which doesn’t offer a lot of new information, alhough it’s interesting that when quizzed on economic policy Hide chooses to prioritise “certainty” for investors above the more punchy “tax cuts” message normally favoured. According to Hide there has been “policy uncertainty” in economic matters with the Labour-led government. I’d like to see Hide elaborate about what he means by “certainty”. The other article is a general overview of ACT’s fortunes called “A[CT] needs to reduce...

Politics

Wisdom from Guyon Espiner

Some flippant food for thought… I didn’t know that Guyon Espiner had a blog, but buried on the TVNZ site it appears he does. In his latest post called “Minor parties and political power” the state broadcaster’s resident sage gives his opinion on the best of the rest – and mentions only New Zealand First, the Greens and the Maori Party, in that order. Beryl Good (20 on ACT’s list) commented directly on Espiner’s post: “Hello Guyon Why have you not mentioned the ACT Party on your Minor Parties and Political power talk? ACT has so much sensible policy AND...

Politics

ACT, David Garrett and the Sensible Sentencing Trust

I neglected to place a comment at the time on ACT’s announcement that David Garrett, legal counsel for the right-wing lobby group called the Sensible Sentencing Trust, is on place number 5 in the party list. Place 5 was left open at the time of ACT’s main list announcement in August. It’s not surprising that ACT has, as Steve Braunias puts it today, “sidled up” to the Sensible Sentencing Trust. An anti-crime message has been a key part of the party’s election platform since 1999. In 2002, the “Zero Tolerance for Crime” was accompanied by billboards showing handcuffs on a...

Politics

Vote first here!

For those of you who can’t wait to cast your vote on November 8, make sure you cast your vote in Douglas to Dancing‘s poll on ACT’s party vote on the sidebar at left. There are six days to go. In the question I ask “realistically” what percentage of the party vote ACT will get. I thought this could be overwhelmed by ACT supporters hoping the party will get “7% or more” – but a check just now found that of the 12 votes cast (a modest success given the niche appeal of this blog), the most popular band was...

Politics

MMP – it takes just TWO ticks

Amidst a lot of the usual pap there are some good gems of information in a Steve Braunias article in today’s Sunday Star-Times. The setting is the campaign trail in Hide’s Epsom electorate: Hide, 51, leader of the Act Party, MP for Epsom, moved along the pavement with pretty little steps and a winning smile on his tanned, tight-skinned dial. He asked: “Vote for me?” He handed out Act leaflets. Few resisted. Many welcomed the chance to shake his hand. He was among friends; when Hide won Epsom in the last election, he beat his opponent, National’s Richard Worth, at...

Politics

TV debates: MMP, not FPP

News that Helen Clark and John Key are refusing to debate each other with other party leaders has understandably been received with anger by Rodney Hide. Television debates are a major platform for small party leaders to put forward their case to voters. Excluding leaders other than from National or Labour devalues votes given to small parties and only encourages the mistaken view that New Zealand has a presidential system, rather than a proportional, MMP environment. Hide performs well in debates and will be annoyed that he will be robbed of a potential opportunity to swing voters from National in...

Politics

Wong way to do things

National MP Pansy Wong’s attack on Kenneth Wang, the ACT candidate in Botany, should backfire. Wong has lodged an EFA complaint against Wang on the basis that his billboards, which claim voting for Wang will net voters both Wang and Wong (because of the latter’s high list position), amounts to an unauthorised and untrue endorsement of Kenneth Wang by Pansy Wong, who has done no such thing. If mainstream-niche party competition theory, as set out by Bonnie Meguid and discussed by me earlier this year, holds, this attack should have only upside for ACT. Voters feel sympathetic to a small...

Politics

ACT and the financial crisis

With all the coverage of the financial contagion which centres on the United States, it’s sobering to recall that it is New Zealand, not the US, which has moved into a “technical recession” in the past week, having suffered two consecutive quarters of negative growth. The last time this happened was in 1998 – a fact which should give ACT pause for thought. While financial troubles are not normally something to be embraced with glee, ACT should actually profit electorally from the economic uncertainty. In 1998, the year of the last recession (which took place amidst the Asian Crisis), the...

Politics

Update: Simon Walker

I mentioned Simon Walker in my post on targeting New Zealand voters abroad. Walker was included in ACT newsletters during its start-up phase in the mid-1990s as the party’s London contact. Walker edited the 1989 book Rogernomics: Reshaping New Zealand’s Economy, a collection of articles in favour of the economic reforms began five years earlier by the then Minister of Finance and later ACT co-founder, Sir Roger Douglas. Mr. Walker has since contacted me to say that he is still an ACT party member and supporter. Indeed, he appears to still be living in London and is the Chief Executive...

Politics

Update: targeting voters abroad

Many thanks to Stephen who posted some interesting information as a comment to yesterday’s post on the difficulties of targeting New Zealand voters abroad. According to an expat organisation called Kea New Zealand, which is running a campaign called “Every Vote Counts”, only around 28,000 of 500,000 New Zealanders living abroad who are eligible to vote actually do so, which I think is a staggering statistic. As for the motives behind the campaign, according to Kea: Every Vote Counts is strictly non-partisan, and does not advocate that expatriates vote for any particular political party or candidate, nor hold or act...

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