Geoffrey Miller

New Zealand geopolitical analyst & Arabic/Russian learner

Author: Geoffrey Miller

Cunliffe and Robertson

Politics

Three reasons why David Cunliffe’s apology for being a man might have been a smart move

This post was originally published at Liberation. The majority view seems to be that David Cunliffe’s apology on Friday for ‘being a man’ was a mistake. But a contrary view could be that the apology was a very deliberate and calculated risk. Here are three reasons why Cunliffe’s apology might have been a smart move.  1. Voters are talking about Cunliffe There’s only one thing worse than being talked about – not being talked about. There are 74 days until the election on 20 September. If Labour and Cunliffe win every one of these days – in terms of media attention and focus...

TV3 political editor and then Labour leader Phil Goff, 2011 (original image)

Politics

Twitter lists: New Zealand media and politics/New Zealand foreign policy

I manage two Twitter lists. The first list is for New Zealand political and media-related Twitter accounts. This list is called NZ media/politics+. The list has 1700+ members, including journalists, broadcasters, producers, current and former members of parliament (MPs), parliamentary candidates, parties, unionists, lobby groups, academics, diplomats, bloggers and other commentators. The second list has 700+ accounts that are related in some way to New Zealand foreign policy – including diplomatic missions, New Zealand and foreign diplomats, journalists, analysts, commentators and organisations. This list is called Foreign policy & trade NZ. These lists are not intended to be partisan or...

Success or failure

Politics

Three reasons why the Internet Party might not be successful

This post was originally published at Liberation. In my first post, I looked at why the Internet Party might be successful. Here, I look at why it might not be. 1. Ideology  In the last post, I concluded by looking at the Internet Party’s chances of taking the mantle of a populist party. But the downside of being populist is ideological incoherence. The unveiling of the deal with Mana was met by the wave of scepticism from the Establishment – perhaps symbolised best by TV3 political editor Patrick Gower, wholabelled the arrangement as ‘one of the dirtiest deals in New Zealand political history’. Internet...

Kim Dotcom

Politics

Three reasons why the Internet Party might be successful

This post was originally published at Liberation. The Internet Party has a funder, a leader and now a shortlist of 22 enthusiastic prospective candidates who are seeking a place on the party’s inaugural list. But how likely is the party to succeed? In the following two posts, I look at three reasons why the Internet Party may succeed – and three reasons it might not. The Internet Party is up and running. Here are three reasons why it might succeed: 1. Resources Where: Albany Street in Dunedin, just along from the now closed Captain Cook Tavern.When: A wet Monday afternoon in June. What:...

Bundestag

Politics

Five reasons why the German election matters for New Zealand

This post was originally published at Liberation. In this post I provide some comparative insights into the lessons of the recent German election for New Zealand politics. The lessons are the following: 1. The electoral system is the same, 2. The German election shows the danger of a 5% threshold, 3. Angela Merkel is John Key, 4. A coalition is possible that does not include the biggest party, 5. Credibility matters. 1. The electoral system is the same Germany was the model for the mixed member proportional (MMP) voting system that New Zealand adopted in 1996. While it will always be easier culturally and...

Parliament buildings, Wellington.

Politics

New Zealand politicians on social media (including Wayne Mapp at The Standard)

This post was originally published at Liberation. MPs past and present in the blogosphere A number of past and present MPs are engaging in social media – blogs, and Twitter in particular. In this blog post,I outline what politicians are communicating online and where. I evaluate their efforts, and report on the latest rightwing ex-politician to enter the comments section of a leftwing blog. #106540172 / gettyimages.com This post was inspired by an innocuous-looking reader comment by “Wayne” at leftwing blog The Standard on the blogpost, Cunliffe declares war on National and the TPPA. Here are the comments: Wayne 8.1.1.3 17 September 2013...

Rodney Hide Epsom billboard

Politics

Can Labour learn from Act’s leadership primary? (part 2)

#56052984 / gettyimages.com This post was originally published at Liberation. In the last post, I looked at the background to the Act Party’s 2004 leadership primary, which saw Rodney Hide win election over three other contenders. In this post, I consider some new information passed from a former Act insider, who wishes to remain anonymous. The comments are a cautionary tale as to what can go wrong with a primary contest. Based on this information and analysis, I ask whether Labour will end up going the same way that Act did following its destructive primary. An Act Party insider writes: I’m bemused by...

Act billboard 2005

Politics

Can Labour learn from Act’s leadership primary? (part 1)

#55789878 / gettyimages.com This post was originally published at Liberation. The current New Zealand Labour Party leadership primary contest presents a more democratic way to elect a party leader. Traditionally, the party leader has been seen as a matter for the parliamentary wing, with the much less visible role of party president being elected by the party as a whole. In this blog post – the first of two posts on the subject – I argue that the new primary system, while far from perfect, can only be seen as a long-overdue reform which should strengthen the Labour Party as...

Politics

Liberation guest posts

Since 2010, I have written occasional guest posts on Liberation, the blog of Dr. Bryce Edwards. The links to these are below. Liberation guest posts (in reverse chronological order):24 May 2012: Is taking gifts from lobbyists ever a good idea? (On David Shearer/Labour Party) 3 May 2012: Has John Banks breached the Act Party constitution and rules? 30 April 2012: The consequences of the John Banks donation scandal 29 April 2011: Winners and losers in the Act Party leadership coup 28 April 2011: National, Act, Brash and Orewa 27 April 2011: Don Brash’s move from National to Act 25 April 2011: Don Brash – a new hope...

David Shearer and David Cunliffe

Politics

Memo to David Shearer: is taking gifts from lobbyists ever a good idea?

#145209321 / gettyimages.com This post was originally published at Liberation. David Shearer has defended taking free hospitality from SkyCity at the Rugby World Cup by saying he didn’t know at the time about the ‘convention centre for pokie machines deal’. If this is really true, then Shearer is, at the very least, guilty of incompetence, as the deal was announced in June 2011 and he is an Auckland MP. The deal was covered by the media at the time in June 2011. The alternative is somewhat worse for Shearer, namely that he was in fact fully aware of the news of the deal in June 2011,...

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