Roy Morgan poll

Note: this post originally appeared on ‘Douglas to Dancing’, a blog I maintained from 2007-9 on the ACT New Zealand political party. The blog was an extension of the thesis I wrote about the Act Party in 2007, From Douglas to Dancing: explaining the lack of success of ACT New Zealand and evaluating its future prospects (PDF).

ACT supporters were no doubt buoyed by the Roy Morgan poll out on Friday which put ACT on a 3.5% share of the party vote. For a reality check, I looked at my own commentary from back in August 2008:

A little hope…came in the latest Roy Morgan poll, out on Friday. ACT – which these days normally doesn’t even make it into polling commentary, leaving one to hunt for the light blue line just above the 0% mark in the accompanying graphic – has perhaps gained a little of what Duncan Garner et al. would call “traction”. The party is now up to 2.5%.

Well, looking at the Roy Morgan site it seems that this hope subsequently faded back to 1.5% – Roy Morgan’s result for ACT in the following three polls. Moreover, the TVNZ and TV3 polls out over the weekend both put ACT on less than 2% (1.6% and 1.8% respectively).

Troubling for ACT is also that National is descending faster than the smaller party can rise. The TV3 and Roy Morgan polls put National on 45% and 40% respectively. By those measures, ACT’s 3.5% isn’t going to put National over the line.